Published: 17/11/2025
As part of Australia’s pathway to net zero emissions by 2050, the federal government has set a national target for 2035 to reduce emissions by 62–70% below 2005 levels.
Australia currently emits approximately 440 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO₂-e) annually - 28% below 2005 levels. This represents a 1.4% reduction, or 6.5 Mt CO₂-e, compared to the previous year. However, according to the Climate Change Authority, achieving the 2030 target will require annual emissions reductions of 18 million tonnes. If this is met, the pace of reduction must then accelerate to 23 – 33 million tonnes by 2035 to reach the 62% or 70% target levels. In effect, Australia will need to halve its emissions between now and 2035. Failure to meet the 2030 target would make (even the lower end of the) 2035 target significantly more challenging.
To date, most emission reductions have come from the natural world i.e. forests, wetlands, grasslands, and oceans—rather than from cutting fossil fuel use. When natural systems are excluded, the overall reduction is just 4%, according to the Head of the Centre for Climate and Energy Policy at ANU.
Recognising the need for deeper and broader emissions cuts, the government’s Net Zero Plan outlines pathways for Australia’s major emitting sectors to reach net zero. The largest sources of emissions are electricity and energy, followed by resources, transport, agriculture, manufacturing, and buildings and infrastructure. According to the Treasury’s Baseline Scenario, most of the emissions reductions to 2030 can be achieved by expanding renewable energy generation and the electrification across the economy. This transition is expected to deliver over 90% reduction in electricity generation emissions below 2005 levels by 2035, as coal exits the system and renewables become the dominant source of electricity. Notably, the Net Zero report states that natural gas will remain important for Australia’s economy and energy security during the transition, even as its overall use declines. (Could this be the reason one of the country’s largest gas projects, the North West Shelf gas in Western Australia, was given the greenlight to keep operating for another 40 years until 2070, past 2050?)
Beyond 2030, the modelling shows that other sectors such as resources, industry, transport, and the ‘built’ environment begin to play a greater role in abatement as electrification accelerates, and clean fuels are deployed where electrification is not viable. The resources sector, for example, sees significant emissions reductions through electrification, on-site renewables, and a decline in fossil fuel demand. The manufacturing sector also reduces emissions through fuel switching and efficiency improvements, while the transport sector benefits from the uptake of electric vehicles and low-carbon fuels.
Alongside the mitigation efforts, the government also released a National Adaptation Plan (NAP) to help Australia prepare for and respond to the impacts of climate change. As part of this broader strategy, several major funding commitments have been made: a new A$5 billion Net Zero Fund to drive decarbonisation in industrial processes and scale up the manufacturing of low-emissions technologies; an additional A$1 billion for the Regional Investment Corporation to provide low-interest loans to farming businesses for climate resilience and productivity; A$2 billion for the Clean Energy Finance Corporation to sustain investments in clean energy technologies; and A$1 billion to support the domestic production of clean fuels.
The framework and funding commitments are designed not only to accelerate Australia’s transition but also to give the private sector greater confidence to invest in both mitigation and adaptation opportunities, recognising that private investment has already exceeded $97 billion since 2022.
- https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/net-zero-report.pdf
- https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/briefing-paper-national-climate-risk-assessment-ncra/